CL 12 & 13 Sept

The first thing that bettors must remember about the opening matches of the Champions League group stages is that they tend to be very cautious affairs. The smaller teams will often be going out for a draw and the bigger teams can often be content to also settle for a draw. The games also tend to lower scoring so bettors need to be cautious about teams covering big handicaps and also to avoid betting too many games to be over 2.5 goals. The bookies obviously know this trend and do mark their lines down accordingly but previous experience has shown that often they do not make enough of an adjustment. The last thing to remember is that for many countries it is the start of the football season and many players and teams will not be fully fit or used to playing together. You can not expect top quality football from the Italian and Spanish clubs at this stage as they usually take a while to warm up, so you need to take that into account when making your selections.

Tuesday's picks

Of the eight games tonight several are instantly 'leave along' matches. Barcelona at home against Levski Sofia is one of those as the handicap is so high at 2 1/4. It is close to impossible to see the Bulgarians winning this but it is almost impossible to assess how good or bad they are in pan-European competition. In their last two domestic games they have won 13-0 on aggregate but FC Marek (who they beat 8-0 on Saturday) are a different class of opposition to Barcelona. Barca warmed up for this with a 3-0 demolition on Osasuna so clearly they are on good form too, so one to watch and learn from rather than bet on.

The Sporting Lisbon vs Inter game looks too tricky to call, although if I had to have a bet on it I would definitely avoid Inter, who looked awful against Fiorentina last week in a 3-2 win that could have easily been a 2-0 loss.

The Bayern game is also too hard for me to recommend a bet on. Spartak have not won in their last 17 Champions League matches but they are well into the Russian season and may have the edge in match fitness. At 1.40 for the win Bayern make little appeal, especially after their extra time victory over lowly St Pauli at the weekend, so it's a match to watch rather than wager on.

Chelsea will be desperate to get off to a good start to the Champions League after the disappointments of the last two seasons in this competition. Mourinho is under a fair amount of pressure to win the competition outright and may well not have a job if he fails to win the trophy for club owner Roman Abramovich. However Chelsea have not yet 'clicked' this season and it is clear that they need a lot more time on the training field together before they can all work efficiently as a single unit. Mourinho said as much in an interview with BBC Radio 5 yesterday, hinting that Shevchenko and Ballack are still a long way off their potential peaks for the club because they need a lot more time learning to play with the Blues. That to me looks to be a good reason to oppose Chelsea and Werder Bremen look a decent enough side to give them some trouble. Bremen are a very attack minded team and their last 18 Champions League games have seen two or more goals scored in each game. Last season they managed to beat Juventus 3-2 in this competition, so clearly on their day they can perform. The main concern for bettors has to be the injury to Klose, picked up in the weekend cup tie against Pirmasens, and the potential absence of Frings and Borowski. If all three played I would be more confident in my selection but I still think Bremen are a decent bet on the Asian handicap and are worth a one point wager (+1 goal) at 2.20.

[Chelsea won 2-0]

Liverpool are a hard team to assess and I would not read too much into their 3-0 loss to Everton at the weekend. They are rightly favourites for Group C but the shape of the group suggests that it is going to be close and I expect PSV to try and fight out a draw tonight. PSV are a decent side but they are particularly strong at home, having lost just once in the last 16 European games in the Phillips Stadium. Their league form there is pretty good too - they have won 34 of the last 38 matches there. Liverpool will probably be content just to try and grind out a single point, especially as the club are struggling to fire on all cylinders. The best bet is probably to have a one point bet on there being no goalscorer at 8.00 (7/1) with Bet 365.

[The game ended 0-0 for a 8.00 (7/1) winner]

I was tempted to back Olympiakos against an injury weakend Valencia, especially as Greek teams historically have good home advantage. But Olympiakos have been in indifferent form recently in European competition and the bookies' odds aren't that generous, given that Valencia have such a strong reputation. No bet.

Wednesday's picks

There is one stand out bet for me tonight and I am upset to say that it involves opposing the club I support. Arsenal have to be avoided tonight for their trip to Hamburg for one particularly strong reason and several other good reasons. The main thing to consider is that last year's Champions League final losers are not playing anywhere near as well as they were in May. The Gunners are yet to find their stride this season and are third from bottom in the EPL. They have a young squad who are learning to play together but it has not yet all clicked and they need to be opposed. But the crucial problem is that Thierry Henry does not play tonight. He was responsible for 33 goals for Arsenal last season, triple the next best player (Pires) at the club. Without their talismatic captain Arsenal are a considerably weaker side and they play with a lot less confidence. The way Arsene Wenger has talked about this game suggests he would be happy to take a point from it and yet Arsenal are odds on off a level handicap. You can't even say that Hamburg would lose this match if Henry did play. The main problem with the German side is a slightly weak defence but Arsenal's attack will not be special tonight and with Sanogo and Ljubola up front I can see them squeaking a narrow win. Off a level handicap you have to go with the home side and Hamburg are worth a two point bet at 2.05.

[Arsenal won 2-1 after Hamburg's goalkeeper was sent off early in the game]

Lots of people are getting excited about the Manchester United vs Celtic game but I am not one of them. I think the bookies have over-rated United a shade as the Scottish Premier division is a lot stronger than it used to be and if Hearts could do well in the Champions League last season then surely Celtic, with more money and better players, could do so too. If I had to have a bet I would take Celtic + 1 1/4 at a good odds against price but with Sir Alex's side in such good form - four wins from four in the EPL and scoring for fun - it is hard to get excited about this contest and not having a bet is the best advice.

[Manchester United won 3-2]

All the odds-on shots won last night and Milan, Dynamo Kiev and Porto will have plenty of supporters tonight. I don't like taking clubs at short prices early on in this competition and would be surprised if all three of these clubs won tonight. Of the three I would say Kiev look the most vulnerable as Steaua are a good side.

I find it hard to spot another bet in the other games so it's just the one pick for me this evening.

Check out all the Champions League betting lines at bookies.com:

CL Asian Handicaps
CL Match Odds