CL 21 and 22 Feb

The first thing to remember about this round of matches is that they are likely to be low scoring. Historically the first leg of Champions League games is a cagey affair with neither side wanting to concede too many goals and leave themselves with an uphill struggle in the second leg. The second thing to remember is that form from the knockout stages should be treated extremely warily as it was quite a long time ago and teams that did well at that stage can easily have lost their form now.

Tuesday’s games

The most obvious example of such a fall in form is Benfica, who are playing awfully at the moment and have lost three of their last five in the Portugese league, which is a weak league at the best of times. The reason has been a catastrophic run of injuries but if they play anything like as badly as they did when losing 2-0 to Vitoria Guimaraes at the weekend they will be thumped by Liverpool tonight. Only Nuno Gomes will provide a threat in attack and with the Reds in good form themselves, there is only one way you can bet this game. B Liverpool can be taken with off a level handicap at short odds and I think that is a better option than taking longer odds but asking them to cover the ¼ goal handicap as Benitez will focus on a defensive game and it is not impossible it will end 0-0. But Liverpool look to be much the classier side on current form and despite my dislike of taking away sides with no start in the Champions League, this looks a good value wager. Have a three point bet on Liverpool (level) at 1.65.

Arsenal are another side out of form at the moment and I was tempted to take them on as Real Madrid are in good heart and will want to establish a decent lead before heading back to Highbury. The ¾ goal handicap is tempting but I suspect Arsene Wenger will be sending out a very defensive formation and trying for a 0-0 scoreline. The Gunners have huge injury problems and are sending out a very inexperienced side and if you want to have a bet, you can only go with the home side. I’ll just watch this one but I did very nearly have a wager.

If I had to have a bet in the PSV vs Lyon game I would side with Lyon but the bookies have taken no chances with them and the handicap looks about right. No bet is the call.

Bayern are a tough side to beat at home but AC Milan are difficult opponents and it is hard to see any value in this contest. If you want to back Bayern, the best way is to bet them at 2.38 on the fixed odds to win rather than the Asian handicap.

Wednesday’s games

Check back for Joe’s picks which will be posted shortly.