CL 22 and 23 Nov

Tuesday's games

There are two English clubs in action in the Champions League and, for once at this stage of the competition, it is Arsenal who have nothing to play for as they are safely qualified for the next round. That explains why they are as long as 2.00 (Evens) to win in Switzerland against FC Thun tonight and it is possible Wenger will play a substantially weakened side. He has said he wants to finish top of the group to get a better position in the draw for the next round but rumours suggest it will be a much poorer side than he has hinted and it is impossible to have a bet on this until the squad line up is known.

By contrast Manchester United need to win this game and I think may struggle. Villareal are fifth in the Spanish league and top this qualifying group. They are a decent side who held United to a 0-0 draw at home and I simply think that getting a goal handicap start is too high tonight. The Spaniards are missing their key player, Juan Riquelme, which is a major blow but they didn't have him in the 0-0 draw either and I expect them to play defensive football tonight and try and hit United on the break. A low scoring match looks likely and with United's indifferent form, the handicap looks generous. Some people will point to United's 3-1 win over Charlton at the weekend as evidence of a revival at Old Trafford but I think people are getting carried away by the quality of the goals, which gave a false impression of how well the Red Devils played. Have a two point bet on Villareal +1 at 1.84 and sit back hoping for another dull draw.

Elsewhere nothing stands out as must bet material. Bruges are one I considered with a 1 3/4 goal start against Juventus - that's a huge start in the Champions League and Bruges are not a bad side - and Benfica +1/4 at Lille. The latter match looks likely to be a low scoring draw to me and a better bet may be simply to back the draw at 3.25 (9/4).

Wednesday's games

I was hoping I would be able to back Porto at a reasonable price against Rangers tonight but the bookies have worked out how bad the Glasgow side are and the goal handicap looks about right. I don't like betting at long odds on but if I did I would be sorely tempted by the 1.51 on offer about the Portugese hosts.

Chelsea look likely to win tonight but they can't be relied on to cover the 1 1/4 goal handicap away from home, while the bookies look to have rated Liverpool about right by giving them a 3/4 goal handicap to cover.

The best bet of the night looks to be to take PSV with a 1/2 goal start at Schalke. The German side are 4th in the Bundesliga but desprately need a win in this match as they play Milan in their final match, which will be a tough way to have to get points. PSV top the group and have played a lot better than I expected. It is clear that Gus Hiddink has marshalled his collection of fairly ordinary players into a good, well disciplined unit and they look good value to wrap up a place in the next round. Have a one point on PSV +1/2 at 1.89.

Lyon +1/2 was the only other game I considered having a bet in as Real were awful against Barcelona at the weekend. However the Spanish side are difficult to assess from game to game and a cautious approach means I will not be betting on them.