CL 17 and 18 Oct

Every time another Champions League round starts, I have to remind myself that home advantage is very strong and that you have to have a good reason to take an away team. As my strategy often involves opposing favourites, this slightly restricts the number of bets I am likely to have. But in a way this is good because it is better to pick out a small number of wagers rather than to spray money around too much at multiple matches.

Tuesday's games

There are a couple of small bets I like in tonight's action. My favourite play of the night is to take FC Thun with a goal start at Ajax. Thun have been the most under-rated team of the tournament so far, having already beaten Sparta Prague and only losing 2-1 to Arsenal in a game they should have drawn. The Swiss side are playing well in their domestic league and easily look good enough to be a proper Champions League side and they meet an Ajax side that are simply not playing well at the moment. They are playing badly in the Dutch league, their fans want the manager sacked and this is a perfect time for an upset. Thun look worth a two point at 1.80 getting a goal start against Ajax.

The other bet I like tonight is Panathanaikos at home to Barcelona. Given how important home advantage is, it is suprising to see the Greek side on offer at 5.00 (4/1) to win this match and I waa also surprised that they can be backed with a 3/4 goal start. Barcelona are of course capable of blowing away almost any opposition when they want to and they almost always play attacking football away from home. But that is in the prices and Panathanaikos have already shown against Werder Bremen that they are a capable side. I expect them to play defensively minded, cagey football and try and hit Barca on the break. This is definitely not a strong a bet as Thun but it is a value wager and Panathanaikos are a one point bet +3.4 at 2.00.

Wednesday's games

The only bet I like tonight is to take Artmedia with a goal start at Rangers. Artmedia have already proven themselves to be an awful lot better than anyone expected when they qualified for the first round and they have a small chance of progressing further. They meet a Rangers side that have played suprisingly well so far in the Champions League but who have been awful in the Scottish domestic championship. I prefer to think that their good results have been slightly lucky and am happy to take them on at what looks a ridiculously short price. Have a one point bet on Artmedia + 1 at 1.90.

The only other bet I considered was opposing Liverpool but the prices have moved slightly and I am loathe to take the current ones on offer. Liverpool are clearly not as good a side as last season and Anderlecht are not bad, but I feel happy not having a bet in this contest.