Carling Cup 7 & 8 Nov

Tuesday’s games

At this stage of the tournament (last 16) the Carling Cup becomes a bit more tricky because the managers of the Premiership clubs suddenly think that this may be their only chance of a trophy this season and they may well field a much better side than they did in the previous round, on the basis that they only need to win a handful of games to pick up the silver early next year.

It’s therefore much harder to have a bet than normal.

Often I would expect Manchester United to field a weak side against lowly opponents but there are a couple of reasons to think today may be different. First, it is the 20th anniversary of Sir Alex’s arrival at Old Trafford and with the media focus on his team I expect him to try and put on a good show. Second, United were forced into extra time against Crewe in the last round and I expect him to want to finish off this game in 90 minutes. With Southend only getting a goal start I would rather be on the visitors than the home side but no bet is the best idea unless you know the United team selection and can be sure they are playing a reasonably strong side.

The other games are not much easier but I think Newcastle are a spot of value with a ¼ goal start for their trip to Watford. Much has been made of Glenn Roeder’s sides’ abject performance against Sheffield United on Saturday evening but you need to remember that they were coming straight off a UEFA Cup away game on Thursday night and had not had too much recovery time. I don’t think that was a true indicator of how they can play and while they are now in the relegation zone I think their Cup form is likely to be okay. This is a realistic target for Newcastle this season while if Watford are sensible they will focus on staying in the Premiership. The loss of Marlon King for the rest of the season is a major blow and it would not surprise me if the Hornets were happy to lose this game and focus on the important task of survival. Have a one point bet on Newcastle (+ ¼ ) at 1.87.
[Newcastle won 5-4 on penalties]

The other two games are best left alone. Do not be tempted to bet on Charlton to cover a ½ goal handicap away from home – that’s a high handicap for a side at the very bottom of the Premiership playing a cup specialist team like Chesterfield.

Wednesday’s games

A small win last night and the question is whether we can find any value in tonight’s game.

Birmingham will remember well the last time they played Liverpool in a cup tie (albeit in the FA Cup) as they were destroyed 7-0 last March. Two goals in the first five minutes destroyed the Blues and at the time they were in poor shape and very low on morale. Now they meet Liverpool having won five games on the spin and having not conceded a goal in four of those five games. They look a strong side and are likely to play a full team in this game, unlike Liverpool. The key to this match is how weak a side Benitez decides to put out and what Liverpool’s level of desire is to win this contest. I suspect he will rest four or five of his first team and that we will see a Reds side that is not all that much better than their opponents. Obviously I would rather wait for team news before having a bet but in the absence of that information I recommend a one point bet on Birmingham (+ ¾) at 1.96.
[Liverpool won 1-0]

Chelsea vs Aston Villa is a hard game to call as I suspect both sides are keen on winning this competition. However Chelsea will be looking to avenge their loss at White Hart Lane on Sunday, so they could go on the rampage. The big unknown is what side Chelsea will put out – it could be anything from a Champions League strength side to their reserve team – and until I know that I can’t think of having a bet. Villa have already held Chelsea to a draw once this season and will be keen on their chances tonight, so if you are going to have a bet blind then Villa with a goal start away from home at 2.09 looks the best value on the handicap.

I expect Arsene Wenger to play a weak side tonight and if I had to have a bet on this game I would go for the Toffees off a level start at Goodison. David Moyes is likely to play a close to full strength squad and Everton have already proven they can do well against the Gunners as they showed when drawing at the Emirates two weeks ago. However the odds on offer are not particularly generous and there is no value in having a wager here.

Spurs are in good form and will be high in confidence but they are asked to cover a huge 1 ½ goal handicap against Port Vale. That looks plenty high enough to stop me considering having a bet.