Carling Cup 25 Feb

Joe Saumarez Smith`s expert picks for the Carling Cup final on 25th February 2007.

Carling Cup Final 2007

It has been a magnificent achievement for Arsene Wenger’s juniors to make it to the final of the Carling Cup as they have beaten some decent teams on the way. Now they face their most serious challenge yet as it looks likely that Jose Mourinho will field a full strength side against them. Partly this is because he fears that unless he wins this competition Chelsea could easily end up with no silverware at all this season. And partly this is because he knows that if he fails to win this his job is likely to be even less secure than it already is.

The bookies have rightly installed Chelsea as favourites but I would be wary of backing them at a top price of 2.30. Away from home Chelsea have not been hugely impressive at any point this season and they do seem to be a team that is better over the course of a league season than in Cup competitions. The 1-1 draw away to Wycombe in the semi-finals was the most obvious example of this while earlier in the competition they could only beat a weakened Newcastle side 1-0 at St James’ Park. The loss of John Terry in defence is a massive blow as the Blues play so much better with him available and the defence does look quite weak with Khalid Boulahrouz also absent.

One of the problems with betting this game is knowing what side Arsene Wenger will put out. I suspect he will have Henry on the bench in case of emergencies and that he will be keener to win this than he has so far let on. He will start with the young stars that have served him so well but if they are not winning with 20 minutes to go I expect him to go for a result with more experienced players. Arsenal are generally better at one off Cup games than Chelsea and have already drawn 1-1 with their opponents at Stamford Bridge this season, so they will draw some confidence from that result.

At the odds on offer, a draw looks the most attractive option. Odds of 3.30 about the match being tied after 90 minutes are a small value bet and a one point wager is recommended.

Chelsea won 2-1