Carling Cup 31 Jan

Joe Saumarez Smith`s expert picks for the Carling Cup semi final second leg on 31st January 2007.

After Arsenal came back from 2-0 down at White Hart Lane to draw 2-2 the bookies pretty much decided that Arsenal had made it to the Carling Cup Final to meet Chelsea in Cardiff.

And you can see why. With two away goals in the bag all Arsenal have to do is to secure a low scoring draw to ensure qualification for the next round. They are playing with a ton of confidence and the junior team look up to the challenges posed by even top clubs such as Liverpool when they play close to their first team.

So on that basis, shouldn’t Arsenal be a home banker at 1.95?

I don’t think they should. It is hard to know what Arsene Wenger’s tactics will be but I think he is likely to stick with his youngsters for this game, even with the prize of a Cup final at the end of it. However the likely loss of Julio Baptista, who picked up a groin injury against Bolton, is a major concern as he bossed the Spurs and Liverpool games and was the major difference between the two sides on both nights. My guess is that Wenger really wants to get to this Cup final because he knows that once the Champions League starts again then he will only be able to field a much weakened side in the FA Cup. So what I think he will do is field a youth side initially and if he goes a goal behind then he will bring on some of the first team from the subs bench.

Spurs will take some heart from the first leg in that they probably feel they should have won it and they know that they can score against this youth side. If I were a Tottenham player I would fancy my chances of making it to the final but in the back of my mind I would remember that Arsenal have already beaten Spurs 3-0 at the Emirates this season.

The value bet in this game is to bet the draw because that result will suit Arsenal and I think that Wenger will play this game with the aim of securing a draw. At 3.50 (5/2) the draw is the value bet and is worth a one point wager.

Arsenal drew 1-1 at the end of Full Time)