Carling Cup 23 & 24 Jan

Joe Saumarez Smith`s expert picks for Carling Cup games on 23rd and 24th January 2007.

Chelsea vs Wycombe Wanderers

Chelsea are a club in crisis at the moment and however much the public relations people try to paper over the cracks it seems obvious to me that they are a side that has lost a ton of confidence, are out of form and should be avoided by bettors at all costs. They looked slightly lost against Liverpool on Saturday in their 2-0 loss and it`s hard to think that they will be 100% focussed on winning this tie by a long way. Sure, it`s possible that they take the chance against lowly opponents to blast them by as many goals as possible but I would say the percentage call is undoubtedly that they grind out a win and move on to the more important task of winning the Premiership and/or the Champions League. Wycombe will come into this knowing they have already held the Blues to a 1-1 draw at home and they will be less fearful and may even think they can possibly sneak a result. The 2 1/4 goal handicap is insulting to them on what we have seen so far and I think they are worth a decent bet at a handicap price that is based entirely on Chelsea`s reputation - make it a two point bet on Wycombe (+2 1/4) at 1.86.

Chelsea won 4-0

Tottenham vs Arsenal

We didn`t have much luck last night with Shevcheno finally finding his scoring boots and tonight`s game looks tricky for betting too. The problem with games that are played over two legs is that in the first game the away side will almost always be happy to take a draw and the game can often be quite dull because of that. Arsenal will again play their `junior` team, even though this is a semi-final, but the way the youthful side disposed of Liverpool 6-3 suggests they are a pretty useful group of players. There is a huge amount of confidence in the Gunners squad at the moment and it would be a brave man who would oppose Arsenal at the moment, especially after their comeback 2-1 win over Manchester United on Sunday. Spurs come into this game on the back of a few poor results and Martin Jol has warned his side not to be complacent tonight. I think the bookies have got this right in making it a level handicap game with Spurs the slight favourites but the value bet is on the fixed odds draw, rather than the handicap. Have a one point bet on the draw at 3.50.

Arsenal drew 2-2