Carling Cup 9 & 10 Jan

Joe Saumarez Smith`s expert picks for Carling Cup games of 9 and 10 January, 2007

Tuesday’s game

Liverpool have been heavily supported with bookies around the world for their Carling Cup match against Arsenal, despite losing 3-1 at home on Sunday. The reason for this is that Arsene Wenger is almost certain to stick to his policy of fielding youngsters in the Carling Cup and there is no reason to think he will do otherwise in this re-arranged quarter final (the original match was abandoned because of thick fog just before Christmas).

So do we think Benitez’s Reds are good value to cover a ½ goal handicap against Wenger’s young charges? The winner of this game will meet Spurs in the semi-final, which is an attractive prospect, before almost certainly meeting Chelsea in the final. Liverpool have a very small chance of winning any other silverwear this season now other than by winning the Carling Cup, so I expect them to put out a full strength side. At full strength on Sunday Liverpool had more of the possession than Arsenal but a couple of superb goals and a great solo effort from Thierry Henry was the difference between the two teams. My feeling though was that game was full of some exceptional skill and that we will see a less interesting affair in the second game. A below strength Arsenal will probably play a far more cagey game and try and steal the game on the break while Liverpool might be lacking a bit of confidence after losing the first game. My inclination is the handicap line for the game is about right but there’s a little bit of value in betting on under 2.5 goals as bettors and bookies will have been mesmerised by the four goals on Sunday. Have a one point bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.80.

Arsenal won 6-3

Wednesday’s semi final

Yesterday`s result demonstrates the importance of knowing what kind of side the manager plans to field as Liverpool`s below strength line up was destroyed by a supposedly weaker Gunners side.

Tonight`s game comes with all sorts of health and wealth warnings. Chelsea should of course win this easily but this is just the first match of a two leg semi final. If I were Jose Mourinho I would be tempted to field a close to reserve team and hope that their quality is enough to secure a comfortable win. If they fail to do so then you put out a much stronger side for the second leg. Wycombe will just be hoping to keep the losing margin down to as little as possible and would ideally like to get a draw so that the maximum number of supporters will turn up to the second leg and they will get a good payday out of it. I just find this sort of game impossible to assess properly and my advice is not to have a bet. If forced at gunpoint to have a wager I would take Wycombe with a 1 3/4 goal start at home because they will be far more motivated and keyed up for this game than their opponents but it is hard to argue that the price is value until you know what team the Blues are putting out.

Wycombe drew 1-1