Carling Cup 19 & 20 Dec

Joe Saumarez Smith`s expert picks for games on 19 and 20 December 2006.

There has been a ton of money for Liverpool tonight to beat Arsenal and it is not hard to see why. The Gunners have a long history of playing close to their youth side in the Carling Cup and it is hard to think that Arsene Wenger is going to change that now. The coach has admitted that none of the regular first team players will be travelling tonight and even Adebayor will not be risked as he is rapidly becoming a key member of Wenger’s squad following Henry’s injury. With half of the Arsenal side who did so well in this competition last year now out on loan at Championship clubs it looks like the side that the Gunners put out will genuinely be not that good. It will have Theo Walcott but other than that it will be full of players who are inexperienced or not quite good enough to play at this level yet. They are going up to Anfield, which is an intimidating ground to visit, and they will face a Liverpool side that will be close to full strength, if Benitez is to be believed. On hearing of the likely Arsenal side he is probably going to rest some of the players he would otherwise have included but all the suggestions are that the Reds are keen to win this game and will play a decent strength squad. On that basis the ½ goal handicap looks too low and Liverpool are worth a two point bet (-½) at 1.73.

Game was not played due to bad weather

In the other game tonight you have to avoid Charlton whose last two Premiership performances have been nothing short of awful. Their 3-0 loss to Liverpool at the weekend was described by many pundits as the worst ever performance by a team in the history of the Premiership! Morale is low and the Addicks are now heavy odds-on shots for the drop. Whether Les Reed will be able to lift his team for this game is doubtful and they may not even want to as focussing on Premiership survival is far more important (and financially vital) than concentrating on a cup run. Still, Wycombe are only in league two and are in fifth place in that league, so they are clearly a class below the home side tonight. The handicap is pretty low given the gulf between the two teams and you would normally expect this to be a 1 ¾ goal game. If Wycombe were a really good cup side I might fancy them but I think the bookies are being super cautious with their odds and there is no real value in a punt here. Leave this game alone.

Wednesday’s games

Tonight’s games – assuming they are not cancelled because of bad weather – should both be entertaining to watch but they are not exactly the sort of matches I dream about when I want to have a bet.

Let’s get the easy game out of the way first. Although Southend managed to beat Manchester United to get through to the quarter-finals they have not yet won away from home all season. They are bottom of the Championship, in awful form and look the sort of side that could be on the wrong end of a bad beating. However the bookies agree with this and make Spurs very short odds (1.25) to win and 1 ½ goal favourites on the handicap. Martin Jol’s side is weakened at the moment with Zokora banned, Keane and Jenas definitely out and Lennon and Ghaly likely to be rested unless they slip a goal behind. While Spurs should win it is not necessarily going to be their top priority to win by a long way and betting on them to do so is the fast way to go broke.

Chelsea were beaten by Newcastle in the FA Cup last season and the bookies are going to hope the Magpies can do the same this season in the Carling Cup. We have some form to go on in this game – Chelsea beat Newcastle 1-0 at Stamford Bridge two weeks ago – and Newcastle were far from disgraced in that game. The Blues are likely to be without John Terry tonight and they do often look a much weaker side when he does not take part. It also likely Mourinho will not play a full strength side, although I have to admit that even a Chelsea second team is pretty impressive. With Newcastle’s injury crisis starting to be solved (only Babayaro is a new absentee as he is suspended but Duff will take his place) and the side getting results, I think they will fancy their chances tonight. As Chelsea often only win by a single goal, the fact that Newcastle get a goal start at home on the handicap means that there is some value in taking the Magpies on the Asian markets. Have a two point bet on Newcastle (+1) at 1.79.

Chelsea won 1-0