Carling Cup 24 & 25 Oct

Joe Saumarez Smith`s expert picks for Carling Cup games on 24 and 25 October 2006.

Betting on the Carling Cup is all about understanding teams’ motivations and it is safe to say that there are plenty of Premiership managers who will not care if their team is eliminated tonight. If you are at the bottom of the table and relegation could cost you £30 million or more why would you bother about winning a poxy competition like the Carling Cup? The extent to which this is true is seen by the fact that the under/over on the number of Premiership teams eliminated tonight is 6 (with Ladbrokes).

The key is to work out which teams would actually rather be out of the competition as quickly as possible. If you are Chelsea or Arsenal you probably don’t care too much about winning it and will play your second or third team but the problem with this is that often the third team will contain two internationals and they will be good enough to beat a full strength Championship side. It is, in my opinion, better to focus on sides towards the bottom of the Premiership who need to focus on survival this season.

So my shortlist includes Charlton, Wigan, Sheffield United, Watford, Fulham, West Ham and Manchester City. Fulham may be towards the top of the table but I think most people who support the Cottagers would expect them to be much lower at the end of the season.

Tuesday’s games

Best bet of the night looks to be to oppose Sheffield United. Neil Warnock has made it pretty clear that he does not care about staying in the competition and he made it abundantly clear when he played a reserve team in the last round, against Bury. They scraped through 1-0 but with his side needing to avoid injuries and Premiership survival an imperative then you can be pretty sure he will not risk many of his big names tonight. By contrast Birmingham are in good form and will fancy their chances of going far in this competition. They are doing pretty well in the Championship and if they play a full strength team then they should be quite a long way superior to the Blades’ reserve side. Have a four point bet on Birmingham (+¼) at 1.91.

Birmingham won 4-2

Watford also look worth going against for pretty much the same reasons. They have weaker opponents than Sheffield tonight but Aidy Boothroyd has already said that he intends not to play Marlon King and that other first team regulars will be rested. That looks to me like a team that is happy to be eliminated tonight while Hull, who have big club pretensions, will be fired up for a victory over a side in the top flight. Even though they are bottom of the Championship I think they can raise their game enough to sting the Hornets and the bet is two points on Hull (+1) at 1.72.

Hull lost 2-1

These are easily the best bets of the night.

Wednesday’s games

My Carling Cup theory seemed to work fairly well last night and while the bet on Hull was money back all round, the bet on Birmingham produced a good profit on the largest suggested bet so far this season.

The six games tonight don’t have any such standout bets, not least because four of the ties are all Premiership affairs.

There will be plenty of bettors looking to get on Bolton for their trip to Charlton but I think it is a game best left alone. Charlton boss Ian Dowie is under huge pressure to pull the Addicks out of the mire and has promised he will play a full strength team. By contrast I expect the Trotters not to care too much about this competition and I can see Sam Allardyce resting about half his first team squad for the trip to The Valley. Normally that would be a good reason to back Charlton but their morale is so low at the moment that it is hard to feel confident about investing money in them and I think the best idea is simply to leave this game alone.

Manchester United will field a second team for their trip to Crewe but they have such strength in depth and so many players looking to prove themselves that you have to think they will almost certainly win against the League One contenders. United though are plenty short enough in the betting and this is another game worth swerving.

Best bet of the night is Liverpool to cover the one goal handicap at home against Reading. Normally I would leave such a large handicap game in the Carling Cup alone but Reading coach Steve Coppell has publicly admitted he does not care about this competition and most of the first team squad will not be playing in this game. By contrast Liverpool coach Benitez has said he wants to win this competition – he can’t win anything else this season by the look of it – and will play a close to full strength side. The Reds may have been in poor form recently but if a 80% strength side cannot beat Reading reserves by a goal or more then something really is wrong at Anfield. My recommendation is a one point bet on Liverpool (-1) at 1.81.

Liverpool won 3-2

I would avoid Chelsea as they may not play anywhere near a full strength side while Spurs should win but are short enough with the bookies to avoid a bet. Newcastle and Portsmouth is difficult to call as neither side is playing well and it may be best to wait and hear who will be playing before investing any money – I suspect Newcastle may play a full strength side in the hope of getting a morale boosting win under their belts.