Carling Cup 19 & 20 Sept

Expert picks for Carling Cup games of 19 and 20 September, 2006.

The Carling Cup is one of the most difficult competitions to assess because so many of the teams will not be playing a full strength side. For many of the top Premiership sides it is a chance to play their second or third string teams and give young players a chance to see what it is like to play in a decent cup competition. Arsene Wenger certainly treats the competition as a juvenile training ground (until the semi-finals at least) but even Championship clubs may decide that their priority lies in trying to win promotion to the Premiership rather than win this competition.

However for some of the mid-table Premiership clubs this is the only realistic chance of winning some silverware and the likes of West Ham, Middlesborough, Everton and (dare I say it) Spurs may well try hard to win this competition, especially as it brings with it a place in the UEFA Cup the following season.

The moral of the story is to check the team news just before the game and have your bets then when you know for certain what team the coach will be playing. That makes it difficult for me to make picks in advance but I will give it a try!

Tuesday`s games

There will be plenty of supporters of Luton for their trip to Brentford tonight but I will not be one of them. The game will be played as the BBC show a Panamora TV investigation in which Luton boss Mike Newell features prominently. He talks about how bribes and `bungs` are ruining football and it will ensure he is in the media spotlight all week. The club thrives on his excellent management and I can`t help that the national TV exposure will leave him with enough time to focus on this clash. There was evidence that they were already suffering from that when they lost 4-1 to Cardiff at the weekend, although that scoreline was slightly distorted by the sending off of left winger Emanuel after 10 minutes. The Hatters travel to Brentford tonight, a club a division below Luton who have finished in the top six of League One for the past two years. They have a few injury problems tonight which put me off a large bet but all signs are that they will be up for this game and off a level handicap the Bees are worth a one point bet at 1.95

Luton won 3-0

QPR are in dire form at the moment and will not fancy their trip to Port Vale tonight one bit. The Rs are bottom of the Championship and lost 2-1 to Colchester at the weekend, a game they would have expected to win or at least draw at Layer Road. Port Vale are flying in Division One and are fourth, having won their last three games in which the scored seven goals and only conceded one. I love betting clubs doing well in their league against a club at the bottom of the league above and this is just such a scenario. Have a three point bet on Port Vale (level) at 1.76.

Port Vale won 3-2

It`s a shame that Barnet are not slightly better than they are because Leeds look like a side to oppose. With Kevin Blackwell on the point of being sacked (and apparently replaced with Dennis Wise, according to my sources) it is tempting to take the League 2 side with a goal start at Elland Road. But the gulf between the Championship and League 2 is quite large and Leeds may decide to treat this as a morale boosting match, so it is probably best left alone.

I don`t know how Southampton will treat this competition but if they put out a full strength side then you want to be on them to cover a 1/2 goal handicap at 1.97 on their trip to Millwall. The Lions have lost all their bite this year and are struggling and it is hard to see the Saints not winning comfortably should they be trying.

The other games are either too difficult to work out or there is not enough injury information for me to make a selection.

Wednesday`s games

There were surprisingly few upsets in last night`s games with only Wigan - last year`s finalists - being sent home much earlier than expected.

Aston Villa have been the best supported team tonight and this is definitely the sort of competition they will thrive in. Martin O`Neill knows how to put a Cup side together and the 21.00 (20/1) about them winning this competition offered by Bet Direct looks worth taking. Whether they are good value to cover a goal handicap away from home is another matter. If you want to bet on Villa you are better off taking the 1.57 about them winning the match than betting them on the Asian handicap.

Best bet of the night looks to be to take Derby off level handicap for their trip to Doncaster. Doncaster have failed to score in their last two games (both 0-0 draws) and are seventh from bottom in League One. Derby are a decent Championship side and while they are midway in that table the gulf between the two leagues is pretty large and Derby are clearly in better form. They have had a tough run of matches in recent weeks and have performed fine so I expect them to play well against less good opposition tonight. Off a level handicap Derby are a one point bet at 1.92.

Derby drew 3-3

The other games do not throw up any betting opportunities.

Click here to see all the Carling Cup betting at bookies.com:

Carling Cup Asian handicaps
Carling Cup match odds
Carling Cup winner odds