International Friendlies 6 & 7 Feb

Joe Saumarez Smith`s expert picks for International friendly football games on 6th and 7th February 2007.

Tuesday`s games

International friendly games are always tough to call as one never knows what kind of a side the manager will put out. Will he be giving the youngsters a game when they would not normally be part of the team or will he go for a full strength side in order to boost morale for the more important qualifiers?

There are two matches that stand out for me as being decent bets:

Bulgaria take on Latvia in Cyprus tonight. Stoichov, the Bulgarian manager, has selected a strong team for this match and he appears to be taking it seriously. Latvia will be putting out an inexperienced team with a lot of fringe players. Although Latvia are very strong at home, they do not seem to carry that form elsewhere and I think they will struggle tonight. Have a two point bet on Bulgaria (-3/4) at 1.90.

Bulgaria won 2-0

Australia will take on Denmark at Loftus Road tonight, but the Australian side will be far weaker than one might expect. Graham Arnold has announced that seven of his players will be out for this match. Neil is out injured, as are Moore, Wilkshire, Schwarzer and Beauchamp. Culina and Bresciano will both miss out as they are staying at home with their heavily pregnant wives. Viduka is not a dead cert to play, he has been injured, but has been seen in training recently. With so many players out, there will be an opportunity for many of the youngsters to play, but will they be up to the job? Denmark are a solid side, they may also not be playing their top side, but their team will be experienced and that may count for a lot when playing away from home. I recommend a two point bet on Denmark (-1/4) at 1.75.

Denmark won 3-1

Wednesday`s games

After last night’s successes I should probably feel emboldened but I prefer generally not to have bets on international games.

That said, Spain have to be backed tonight against England with a ¼ goal start. England have not put together an impressive display for some time and it is hard to think they are going to with a weakened side tonight. England have no Wayne Rooney, no John Terry and no Paul Robinson in goal. In other words, they have three of their best players missing. How anyone could contemplate backing England with Ben Foster in goal mystifies me. Spain last played England in November 2005 in the Bernebeau and they won 1-0, a scoreline that in no way reflected Spain’s dominance. The hosts could have won by three or four and only Robinson in goal showed any sort of ability for England (he saved a penalty and stopped several powerful shots). The concern is that Spain have been in poor form in Euro 2008 qualifying (they are fifth in their group) but that will give Aragones plenty of reasons for wanting to perform well tonight and play his strongest starting eleven. The value bet is clear and a a one point wager on Spain (+ ¼) at 1.90 is the call.

Spain won 1-0

The only other bet worth having tonight is to back Egypt who are at home against a weakened Swedish side. The Swedes have decided to rest several of their top players and coach Lars Lagerback likes to use these games to experiment with his potential line ups. If the Swedes were playing at full strength they could be considered good value but the squad looks considerably weaker than normal and are probably just going to turn up and hope not to pick up any injuries. By contrast the Egyptians, ranked 19 in the FIFA rankings, are no slouches and are likely to be up for it at home. I hope they will play Mido and Hassan as Ghaly has looked appalling for Spurs this season. The value is to back Egypt to win this game outright at odds of 2.87 (15/8) with Totesport and that is worth a one point bet. If you can’t get on with them then the ¼ goal handicap the hosts receive at home is okay value but not as good as the outright win bet recommended..

Egypt won 2-0

There’s no other game that I want to have a bet on tonight.