FA Cup Final Betting Picks - 15 May 2010

Ed Gallois highlights one bet for this week`s FA Cup final.

Another pick pack, another bloody nose for the bookies.

At the end of ninety minutes in the Europa League final, Fulham drew 1-1 with Athletico Madrid, securing us another win on the handicap. This is quite a run we’re having against the layers. Long may it continue.

Fulham can consider themselves somewhat unlucky not to have taken the match to a penalty shoot-out, but Diego Forlan deserves great credit for his top-class finish right at the end of extra-time.

It’s no co-incidence that Aguero set up the winning goal and Forlan finished it: the Argentinian and Uruguayan internationals were by far the best players on the pitch on Wednesday night and I expect both to sparkle at the World Cup.

Onto our next Cup final to bet on: the oldest football competition in the world, the prestigious FA Cup.

FA CUP FINAL

Chelsea vs Portsmouth

Chelsea are giving up two full goals on the handicap against Portsmouth in this year’s FA Cup final, which is infuriatingly on the money in my view. Anything less than a two goal start to Pompey and I would wholeheartedly recommend backing the Premier League champions. After all, they just put eight past Wigan with no reply and are in breathtaking form.

More than two goals start to the underdogs seems too much, however. Clearly, Chelsea should win the match, but Avram Grant’s side are not the pushovers in this competition as they were in the league. Their semi-final defeat of high-flying Tottenham is proof of that. Also, FA Cup finals are usually levellers in terms of ability; the weaker side often raises its game for the special occasion. Plus of course Portsmouth have been in pretty decent form lately.

I know what you’re thinking: surely top-of-the-table Chelsea will smash bottom-of-the-table Portsmouth? As, for example, they did at Fratton Park in March. You may be right. But do we really want to have to rely on the Blues winning by three clear goals in a major cup final with all the added pressure that brings? Especially as nearly all of the pressure will be on Chelsea as favourites.

The West London side are also hoping to secure the first Double in their club’s history, which increases the pressure on them to deliver. In these circumstances, I’d bank on them to win by two clear goals against a poorer side like Portsmouth, but not three.

So, although I don’t like saying this, my recommendation this weekend is to avoid betting on the handicap for the FA Cup final.

Instead, have a small wager on Chelsea to be winning at half-time and full-time at 4/6 with Stan James. Ancelotti’s men led at half-time and went on to win 13 of their last 18 Premiership matches. That’s a healthy statistic to get behind it and I suggest we do so.

Bet 2pts on Chelsea half-time/full-time at 1.66 with Stan James