Euro 2012 Qualifiers Picks - 5 September 2011

Rob Alexander picks out two good bets from this week's Euro 2012 qualifiers

Hungary upset our bigger bet on Friday but we still walked away with a small 0.8 point profit after Bosnia-Herzegovina's fine win over Belarus. Hopefully the two picks for Tuesday's matches will yield a further profit.

England play Wales at Wembley following up from another fine away win, this time against Bulgaria. England can build an almost unassailable six point lead over nearest Group G rivals Montenegro with victory over their neighbours. Wales beat Montenegro on Friday and will be hopeful of restoring more pride with a decent result against England.

Scotland battled to a draw against Czech Republic at Hampden Park on Saturday and while it was probably a fair reflection of the match, the manner of Czech Republic's equaliser left a bitter taste in the mouth of everyone watching the game. Jan Rezek's dive in the area fooled no-one apart from Dutch referee Kevin Blom, who awarded a penalty that Michael Kadlec smashed home in the last minute, all but ending Scotland's slim play-off hopes. Scotland play Lithuania at home on Tuesday and need a win to keep their hopes alive.

Nothern Ireland's 1-0 home defeat at the hands of Serbia makes their task of qualifying for at least the play-offs a lot more difficult, but not impossible as they are in one of the tightest groups, with just two points separating all the teams going for the play-offs. They travel to Estonia focussing on taking all three points.

Republic of Ireland will be disappointed to have drawn 0-0 at home to Slovakia on Friday, especially since they face a very demanding trip to Russia on Tuesday. Giovanni Trappatoni's side will be hoping to at least take a point from the match in Moscow to keep their hopes of automatic qualification for Euro 2012 alive.

First Pick

Scotland v Lithuania

It's not often I find a pick with my home nation (Scotland) involved but this match is too tempting as Scotland takes on a side they always seem to face in qualification for a major championship, Lithuania.

In their last two encounters at Hampden Park, Scotland have beaten Lithuania every time. The stats are with Scotland and the anger and desire after the last match against Czech Republic should spur them on to victory.

With Kenny Miller and Scott Brown suspended and Charlie Adam and Craig Mackail-Smith injured, Craig Levein's squad is trimmed substantially but will mean some younger players are given an opportunity to prove themselves.

Lithuania could only manage a draw at home to Liechtenstein on Friday, meaning that they are still level on points with Scotland having played a game more.

I'm backing Scotland to have too much quality for Lithuania and the 12th man of Hampden will help to see them through with a comfortable victory.

Bet 2 points on Scotland -1 at 2.15 with Victor Chandler.

Second Pick

Finland v Netherlands

The Dutch national team are on fire right now, number one in the world and top of their Euro 2012 Qualifying group with seven wins from seven matches. A win against Finland in Helsinki will see the Netherlands qualify for Euro 2012.

Finland will not be as easy to defeat as San Marino on Friday, Robin van Persie scored four in an 11-0 rout in Eindhoven. The Finns beat Moldova 4-1 in Helsinki but are out of contention for a play-off spot after a poor campaign so far.

Netherlands beat Finland 2-1 in Rotterdam last year, with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar scoring a brace in the first 15 minutes before Mikael Forssell scored for Finland.

Finland were unlucky not to snatch a point from that match, with only some fine goalkeeping from Maarten Stekelenburg and a goal-line clearance preventing them from equalising.

The Dutch have definitely gone up a level since that match last year and I fancy them to win the match, albeit it will be another tight scoreline.

Bet 2 points on Finland +1.25 at 2.01 with Victor Chandler.