UEFA Cup 22 Feb

Joe Saumarez Smith`s expert picks for UEFA Cup games on 22nd February 2007.

The advantage of the second leg ties in the UEFA Cup is that we have some concrete form to go on from the first tie. The disadvantage is that so do the bookies. Also so many of these games now appear to be dead as a team that comes into the game with a 3-0 lead from the first leg is unlikely to field a full strength side and their opponents may well give up if they have not scored in the first 20 minutes of the game.

Beware of the teams that are playing outside their normal domestic season too – Spartak, Dinamo Bucharest, Shaktar Donetsk and CSKA Moscow are all either just in at the opening stage of their football seasons or are still in pre-season training. They are all likely to be slightly worse than you could expect from normal form.

The most obvious bet tonight is to oppose Glasgow Rangers for their home contest against Hapoel Tel Aviv. The Israeli side won 2-1 in the first leg and looked the better side, albeit against a weakened Rangers team. Smith will put out a stronger team at home but there;s not much evidence to suggest that Rangers are genuinely a goal handicap better than the visitors. Supporters of the Scots will say that they had not lost in 13 games in Europe before their trip to Tel Aviv and that they were unbeaten in three months in the Scottish Premiership. But the Scottish league is not that strong and the Israeli league is improving rapidly. If Hapoel could win 4-2 against Paris St Germain (in Paris) then there is no reason why Nir Levin’s side should not put up a good show tonight. Have a two point bet on Hapoel Tel Aviv (+1) at 1.90.

Rangers won 4-0

Looking through the card I struggle to pull out another wager. Werder Bremen could be a shade of value off level against Ajax but with a 3-0 lead from the first leg it is impossible to know who is trying. Bremen will take a decent number of fans with them and if they play like they did in the first leg should win easily but it would be so easy for them to stroll to a 1-0 loss too that I won’t risk my hard earned cash.