Euro 2012 Qualifiers Picks - 1 September 2011

Rob Alexander picks out a couple of bets from this weekend's Euro 2012 qualifiers.

I realise that I have been absent from the picks for a few days, I've been licking my wounds after a particularly poor weekend. It was a case of so near yet so far for some and only a solitary Bundesliga result went our way. No need to be too down though, we're still in profit and there's a long way to go.

The international break gives us an opportunity to recoup some losses from the weekend and hopefully find some quality value bets in the Asian Handicap markets.

Germany can become the first team to qualify for the tournament on Friday if they beat Austria at home. With seven wins out of seven so far, few would back against a German  victory.

Group B is one of the tightest so far and Republic of Ireland have a great chance to go top of the group with victory over one of their main rivals, Slovakia. As well as these two sides, Russia are level on points with 13 after six matches and play Macedonia at home on Friday.

Northern Ireland have performed admirably in Group C considering it contains sides of the quality of Italy, Slovakia and Serbia. Nigel Worthington's team face Serbia at Windsor Park and a victory would give them a great chance of making the play-offs.

Scotland on the other hand, must win both their upcoming matches to have any chance of making the play-offs as World Cup winners Spain are running away in Group I. Scotland play Czech Republic on Saturday and require all three points to keep hopes of a play-off place alive before Lithuania visit on Tuesday in another must win encounter.

England face a tough trip away to Bulgaria, but have won two from two away from home so far in Group G and will be confident of claiming all three points. Close neighbours Wales are yet to get off the mark in Group G and will be hoping to claim all three points at home to England's closest rivals Montenegro on Friday.

Euro 2012 Picks (Friday and Saturday)

Hungary v Sweden (Group E)

Sweden travel to Hungary in a key match in Sweden's hopes of winning the group and qualifying directly.

Sweden trail the Netherlands by three points with 15 points after 6 matches (Sweden lost 4-1 away to the Netherlands) and will probably need to win all their remaining matches to have a chance of qualifying.

Hungary sit third in the group and could go level on points with the Swedes with victory on Friday. Having played a game more and with most points coming from matches with lesser sides like San Marino and Finland; Hungary are in a bit of a false position competing for play-off places.

Sweden's squad may not be the same as in the days of Freddie Ljungberg and Henrik Larsson but in Zlatan Ibrahimovic they still have a talismanic striker who can win matches almost single handedly.

I fancy Sweden to have too much for Hungary in all departments and their desire to keep on winning to put pressure on the Netherlands will see them through.

Bet 2 points on Sweden -1 at 2.6 with bet365

Belarus v Bosnia-Herzegovina (Group D)

This match is the first of a double header between the countries on Friday and Tuesday. Both teams are pushing for an automatic qualification place and currently sit just behind France in the group.

Belarus shocked France in the first match of the group as they won 1-0 in France for Laurent Blanc's first match in charge of Les Bleus. Since then France have improved dramatically and lead the group.

Belarus have not lost yet at home but in Edin Dzeko they face a quality striker in top form for his domestic club, Manchester City.

Looking at the players in each side, the general quality of player is higher in the Bosnia-Herzegovina squad and I fancy them to win a very tight match, despite Belarus being one of the toughest countries to travel to.

Belarus are without both Hleb brothers for this match and that could be key for them going forward, which is another factor in choosing Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Bet 1 point on Bosnia-Herzegovina -0.5 at 2.85 with bet365.

Picks for Tuesday's matches will come out on Sunday or Monday