Euro 2012 Qualifying Play-offs Picks - 15 November 2011

Rob Alexander hunts out a value bet from Wednesday's Euro 2012 Play-off second legs

The Euro 2012 play offs second leg kick off this evening with a couple of ties seemingly already a dead rubber.

Republic of Ireland took advantage of Estonia's woeful disciplinary display in Tallinn to hammer their rivals 4-0 and pretty much book their place in Ukraine and Poland next year. Giovanni Trapattoni has issued a warning to his side not to be complacent and will want to give the home crowd a celebration.

Croatia recorded an impressive 3-0 away win over Turkey last week and need to avoid any slip ups to confirm their place in Euro 2012. Turkey beat Croatia 3-1 on penalties in the Euro 2008 Quarter Finals and this is the first time that Croatia have had the chance to get revenge and they look likely to do so with such a lead going into this evening's match.

Montenegro will have to overturn a two goal deficit at home after losing 2-0 in Prague to Czech Republic last Friday. The home side have been out of form in recent months and may struggle to beat a stubborn Czech side.

The tightest match in the play-offs was the 0-0 draw between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Portugal. Portugal are at home tonight and will feel they have a great chance to qualify for the championships. They were perhaps unlucky last week not to score the away goal. With Edin Dzeko up front for Bosnia they will be dangerous on the break.

Play-off Pick

Portugal v Bosnia-Herzegovina

Portugal may well run away with this match but there seems to be enough evidence that the Portuguese national side makes things tough for themselves and that the Bosnian defence is solid enough to at least limit the damage and make this a relatively close match.

I still feel that Portugal will go through to Euro 2012 but may well scrape through this match. With questionable results at home in qualifying, including conceding 7 goals to Iceland and Cyprus, Portugal are definitely vulnerable. This match carrys a far higher level of importance and the big guns should see them through, just.

Bosnia-Herzegovina nearly beat France in Paris to qualify automatically so they will be confident in their ability to cause an upset. I doubt they have the quality to actually beat the Portuguese but they will not go down without a fight.

Bet 2 points on Bosnia-Herzegovina +1.25 at 2.1 with bet365. I think the 1.8 quoted on Bosnia +1.5 could even be decent value.