CONMEBOL 2014 World Cup Qualifying Picks - 15 November 2011

Rob Alexander picks out a value bet from this week's South American (CONMEBOL) World Cup Qualifiers.

Matchday four of the CONMEBOL 2014 World Cup Qualifying sees the countries involved in qualification for the World Cup in Brazil play their last match until June 2012.

Argentina have had a slow start to their qualifying campaign, picking up just four points from their opening three matches, including an away loss to Venezuela and an embarrassing 1-1 draw at home to minnows Bolivia in their last match.

La Albiceleste travel to Colombia tonight in hopes of improving their position in the nine team group. Colombia will be confident of causing an upset having seen Argentinas recent performances and could go level on point with group leaders Uruguay, who don't play this week.

The other standout tie of the week sees Chile host World Cup semi-finalists Paraguay. Chile have struggled away from home and are currently second bottom of the group on goal difference. Paraguay lost their only away game so far 2-0 in Peru and may well struggle on the road again.

Ecuador host Peru in what promises to be a tight contest between two sides who have three points from two matches. Bolivia travel to a Venezuela side who could go level on points with Uruguay with victory and will be confident of doing so.

Midweek Picks

Chile v Paraguay

My pick comes from the match between Chile and Paraguay and I'm backing Chile to keep up their decent home form with a relatively comfortable victory over a Paraguay side who seem pretty weak in defence.

Of course, backing Chile is a bit of gamble as there could be unrest in the squad after five players including Arturo Vidal, Gonzalo Jara and Jean Beausejour were sent home before their 4-0 defeat against Uruguay after they returned to the team's hotel 45 minutes late and in a drunken state.

I'm still backing Chile to have enough quality to beat Paraguay by at least a clear goal. With Alexis Sanchez and Humberto Suazo up front and plenty of quality throughout the side the Chileans should have enough to record their second win of the qualifying campaign.

Bet 1 points on Chile -1 at 2.85 with bet365. More conservative bettors can back Chile -0.5 at 2.0 with the same bookmaker.